Trend extrapolation is a prognosis technology, with whose assistance future developments are predicted. A trend, a statistically seized trend, already observed, is thus updated into the future. This updating can take place manually via extending a trend line. The trend line can be determined however also by mathematical or statistic analyses.

The time is understood thereby quasi as summarized cause complex out differently variable, which the dependent variable affects. For the fact is however a condition that the determined regularity applies further.

One differentiation exponential linear and logistic processes of the trend.

Thus the advantage exists in relation to simpler qualitative prognosis procedures (like the method of the sliding averages and the exponential smoothing) that future developments, which lie outside of the averages of the past are prognosticated.

The disadvantage of a trend extrapolation is in the fact that one assumes the development observed so far will equally continue. Future events, which can turn around the trend, are not considered. For example Dennis Meadows and its team harvested criticism, which predicted the borders of growth 1972 with the method of trend extrapolation.

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