Prognosis markets represent virtual stock markets, those on an electronic platform to be implemented and over own price statement mechanism ordering.

The term "virtually "means here that in contrast to financial markets no significant money or legal claims are acted. A virtual share represents thereby a future event or a market condition (e.g. Paragraph numbers of a product in the month Decembers or shot gates in a soccer game). The final value of the share depends in each case on the actual exit of the event, i.e. for example 1 (more virtually) euro per 100 piece paragraph. On basis of this connection then participants can act their estimates. In contrast to which take over the course of material stock exchanges, orders to sell and purchase at a prognosis market are implemented over its own commercial mechanism.

The theoretical reason for the information efficiency of the markets supplies the Hayek hypothesis, which means that by the competition on a market the asymmetrically distributed information of the market participants to can be efficient-aggregated. The quality of the results of a prognosis market depends on the status of information of the participants and on the market Design, so that the anvisierte target group at experts is to be responded.

Prognosis markets were tested in some areas of application, as e.g. with the forecast of sport events, of choice exits or by bringing in results of films.

Left

• STOCCER
• Political stick Market of the University of Karlsruhe (TH)
• Hollywood stick Exchange

Scientific articles

• Stretch, Martin/Skiera, Bernd (2003): Internet Based Virtual stick Markets for Business Forecasting, management Science, 49, 1310-1326]

Articles in category "Prognosis market"

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