The oil promotion maximum, often also peak oil (English peak oil, Oil summit, also Hubbert's peak and/or depletion mid POINT), oil point or (oil) promotion summit, marks the time, starting from which the total promotion reaches one or several oil fields their maximum. In particular the global oil promotion maximum is of great importance, since the decrease of the oil production cannot become balanced then for the first time any longer and thus the availability constantly decreases from oil. Differently expressed oil cannot be available at the latest starting from this time any more than quasi inexhaustibly, cheap raw material and source of energy. The most important consequence of this lack is a constantly rising price, since the offer cannot satisfy the demand any longer.

Introduction

During the evaluation of the world-wide oiling system, contrary to the static range (the quotient from reserves and momentary consumption), the delivery per time must be absolutely included with. The usually used static range of the of the earth (BP: estimated approx. 40-50 years) it is misleading since she suggereriert that one can maintain a constant promotion up to the exhaustion of all reserves. Apart from physical connections (see below) it ignores beyond that that even with the employment of ultramodern technology only about 70 % of the reserves can be promoted. In the important oil fields in the Near East is long not reached this peak value, also because by to fast pumping many stores were damaged. The promotion ratio however is the by far most important factor of influence on the world price, because with so far steadily rising demand for oil the price will superproportionally rise. No longer primarily the demand will then adjust the price on the market, but the ever scarcer offer (so-called "seller's market "). Without changes of the world-wide power supply this must lead to a last, final oil crisis.

For an understanding around the important role it approves of oil in all areas of life is for example mentioned that

• a barrel (159 litres) oil 1,700 KW/H at energy contains (corresponds about 25,000 hour farm work),
• the production of a car about 20 barrels oil devours (about 10% correspond to the energy, which uses it during its life span (ILEA 1998)),
• with the gasoline, which a normal passenger car used after only one kilometer (0.8 KW/H), a complete meal for several persons be cooked can.
• the production of a gram microchip 630 gram and thus 32 MT DRAM a chip 1.6 kg oil need (plus 32 litres water) (American Chemical Society 2002),
• the production of a desk calculator tenfold of its weight at oil needs (UN news Centre 1.3.2004) and one due to the high purity and cleanliness, which is necessary for the production of a microchip, for the production of nine to ten computers the same quantity of oil needs as for a car (Environmental Literacy Council).

Oil is today (2006) visible (raw material) or invisibly (energy) contained in quasi all industrially manufactured goods and is the basis of the industrialized world. Procured the announcing promotion maximum was therefore increasingly brought up for discussion. Since 2005 treat both a current study of the international energy agency (IEA) and the US energy Ministry the problem of a promotion maximum. Also the Federal Institution for geosciences and raw materials is concerned with the phenomenon and estimated the time of the promotion maximum in at the latest 10 to 20 years; this is a comparatively optimistic estimation. In the USA president George W. Bush took up the world-wide promotion maximum to the political agenda, to designate even if without the fact publicly directly. In its annual speech ""("SOTU ") on 31 January 2006 before the American congress he - under the title "impact for progressive energies "(Advanced Energy initiative) - announced a break with "of Americas oil dependence "and a turn to State OF the union ADDRESS for the development of alternative energies, with which however, apart from "the classical "regenerativ energies such as sun, wind and bio fuels, also and above all the nuclear energy is meant G.W. Bush: '' State OF the union 2006 '', in: Office OF the press Secretary 31,01. 2006 [18,02. 2006]. In a TV-discussion Bush to 2005 officiating ministers of economics Don Evans has short time later the peak oil fears of the Bush government with view of "the SOTU "- speech again confirms. Evans: "There is world-wide no sufficient oil offer (more) for a full-extent growth of our economics or the world economy. "("There is emergency enough supply OF oil into the world tons grow our economy or the global economy RK its full potential"Â… ") '' hard ball with Chris Matthews' for February 2nd - Transscript '', in MSNBC.com 03,02. 2006 [18,02. 2006].

Emergence of an oil promotion maximum

The promotion of a conventional source of oil effected in several phases, see Abb.1 above. The development follows the find. At the beginning of the promotion stores are at very high physical pressure. This has the consequence that the promotion can be kept approximately constant during one period, which can vary from source to source strongly. With increasing exploitation time will it however more difficult to keep the promotion rates constant. The self-pressure of a source decreases rapidly and must be raised artificially, approximately by a pumps by water. In addition at the beginning first highly liquid, light oil is promoted. The remaining quantities are therefore increasingly viscous and heavy. A further measure is therefore introducing chemicals, which let flow it liquefy the oil and to the boreholes. By these additional efforts the energetic and financial expenditure increases for exploitation continuously, and after a phase approximately constant mechanical handling capacities steps the promotion of the oil field therefore into its last phase, the promotion acceptance (close: decline). This phase can be extended by high technical expenditure, for example by horizontal drillings. Even temporary increases of the promotion were already obtained by technical innovations. The general trend however does not change any longer.

By investigations of the American oil production the US oil geologist Marion King Hubbert could point to the 1950er years that the total promotion of several sources follows the process of a Gauss bath tub curve, see Abb.1 down. Since the data were noted very exactly for the exploitation of American oil fields and publicly admits were, Hubbert could already date 1956 the US-American promotion maximum by its evaluation on the year 1971 and kept right. The model of the Hubbert curve was confirmed also in the consequence, approximately for the oil production of Norway, which reached its high point in the year 2001.

The model presupposes however that the promotion of a source of oil follows the phases described above. The transmission to the world oil production is therefore expresses problematic, since the promotion of individual sources of oil is often politically affected (ex.s: Oil embargo against the Iraq or the freiwillige restriction of Norwegian production). In addition it comes that data are not public concerning the oil promotion of many countries, in particular the OPEC states, partly even the state secret to be subject and from political reasons was intentionally falsified. It admits is that the promotion of the not OPEC states decreases/goes back altogether. Besides it is accepted that the promotion ratio of the OPEC states already close is because of their maximum and can in the Iraq and at the westAfrican coast be only increased. Also one can only later date the promotion maximum if the promotion ratios in the review are analyzed. A further large uncertainty is the definition of conventional oil, which has as a consequence that some states spend unorthodox reserves (like for example tar sands) on conventional and thus the data situation is falsified. Accordingly far strewn also the prognoses are for the estimated time of the world-wide promotion maximum:

--------------------------------------------------------- Time author --------------------------------------------------------- 2003 Campbell, 1998 2004 Bartlett, 2000 2007 Duncan and Youngquist, 1999 2019 Bartlett, 2000 2020 Edwards, 1997 2010-2020 international energy agency (IEA), 1998 --------------------------------------------------------- 

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