Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratjew (Russian , wiss. Transliteration Nikolaj Dmitrievic Kondratjev; * 4. March/17. March 1892 in Golujewskaja in the Gouvernement Kostroma; "† 17 September 1938) was a Russian economist.

Life

As founder and a director of the Konjunkturinstituts in Moscow Kondratjew was involved in the elaboration of the first in the Soviet Union. It was in the Kerenskij government Vice before. Beside his view that capitalism is not condemned to the imminent fall, but over undulations regenerate again and again, was decisive his criticism at the collectivization of the Soviet agriculture the fact that it first to prison and during the large cleaning, which in the year 1938 its high point had, to death condemned and was shot.

From the observation of time series of economical indicators Kondratjew 1926 derived the conclusion that the economic development takes place in the industrial nations in waves, which take about in each case 50 years (Kondratjew cycles).

Important characteristics of the individual waves are that in the upswing periods the years with good economic situation outweigh and are made in the wing over phases - if an overhang on recession years prevails - usually-important discoveries and inventions, basis inventions so mentioned.

These basis inventions would arise always if a lack, and/or a need satisfying by large productivity increase had not developed for any more.

Example: To distribuieren the establishment of the European railways crucially gotten going, because the so far existing transportation facilities (horse bottom plates on highways and similar) were not any more able, the already industrially manufactured goods sufficiently on the markets.

To this theory one leads away today five substantial cycles:

1. Steam engine, cotton (1793 - until approximately 1847)
2. Railway, navigation, steel (until about 1893)
3. Electricity, chemistry (until approximately 1939)
4. Car, oil, electronics (until about 1984)
5. Information, knowledge, ecology (until approximately 2039)

Whether already before, and in which form, a sixth Kondratjew cycle can determine the further economic development, is hot discussed at present.

Literature

• Erik the history of the future, ISBN 3870679638
• Erik Kondratieffs world, prosperity to the industrial company, appears in the middle of August 2005 in the Brendow publishing house
• Harry Maier, waves of the progress, the time No. 12 of 19. March 1993

Related links

• Olga Tolmacova: Nikolaj Dmitriewich Kondratjev and its theory of the long waves. In: ECOCHRON.

See also

• List of economists

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