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The naive prognosis is probably the simplest of all prognoses, since it updates the current value or trend with elementary calculation methods for the future.
With respect to the technical literature between two types of the naive prognosis one differentiates:
The following formulas result thus for the naive prognosis:
\ mathsf {f_ {T-1}} = \ mathit {the last but one value} \ mathsf {f_ {t}} = \ mathit {current value}
If the naive prognosis is used above all for it around the quality another, to judge prognosis computation. In addition the middle error of the prognosis which can be judged and the middle error of the naive prognosis are computed and from this the quotient is formed. If this characteristic value is smaller than 1, then the examined prognosis computation is better than the naive prognosis. That means that the additional expenditure, which is necessary for the prognosis was worthwhile itself.
A such evaluation is however only possible after actual occurring of the event, since for the computation the actual value is needed.
| Year | Naive prognosis, type 1 | Naive prognosis, type 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 3.517 | no value | no value |
| 2003 | 3.612 | 3.517 | no value |
| 2004 | 3.799 | 3.612 | 3.707 |
| 2005 | no value | 3.799 | 3.986 |
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