In the decision theory the Lotterie is a mental Konstrukt, in order to be able to model the possibility of an uncertain future disbursement.

General acceptance

It is frequently accepted that a later disbursement to a Entscheider depends on an environmental condition, which is still unknown at the time of the decision and also not by the Entscheider can be affected. Usually one makes however acceptance over the probability distribution the height for the disbursement.

The height of the future disbursement can follow depending upon application different distributions. In the simplest case is enough a future disbursement, which precipitates with a probability p low and with a probability 1-p highly, in order to be able to light up theoretical questions as for example the risk aversion.

Examples

A simple Lotterie is designed, by throwing a fair coin, which shows with probability 0.5 head and with probability 0.5 number. With head for example 100 is disbursed "€, with number of 0 "€.

Also one can regard the Investment in shares as Lotterie. If the disbursement is the value of the share at a certain future time, one usually proceeds from a log-normaldistributed future disbursement.

Articles in category "Lotterie (decision theory)"

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